The IBNR AI Agent | IBNR Health Blog

The IBNR AI agent is a chat assistant built into IBNR Health that helps you understand and finalize your reserves in plain language, backed by the real numbers in your loaded triangle folder. Open it from the AI Agent page after loading a triangle group.

Rather than a generic chatbot, the agent is wired directly into your analysis. It reads live triangle data instead of guessing, grounds every numeric answer in a tool call, renders charts and tables inline in the conversation, and can make changes to your reserving assumptions on your behalf. Critically, it never invents figures, and it never writes anything without your explicit approval.

How it works#

The agent operates on the folder you currently have loaded. Ask it a question ("what's my total IBNR?", "which average method is most conservative?", "clean the outliers on every triangle") and it decides which of its tools to call to answer or act.

Its tools fall into a few kinds:

Read tools run silently to inspect your data and answer questions. They never change anything.
Display tools render an interactive chart or table inline in the chat, so results are visual instead of a wall of numbers.
Export tools render a live download card so you can save your analysis as files.
Action tools propose a change to your data or assumptions. Each one renders an Approve or Decline card in the chat, and nothing is written until you approve it. Every approved action is recorded in the group's activity feed for a full audit trail.

Available tools#

The agent's capabilities are always evolving. The list below is generated directly from the app's live tool definitions, so it reflects exactly what the current build can do:

Read & inspect

7 tools

Run silently to answer questions about the loaded folder. They read your data but never change it.

getFolderOverviewGet folder overview

List the loaded triangle folder and every triangle in it, with whether each has membership data, projection data, and its current total IBNR.

getReservesSummaryGet reserves summary

Get the current IBNR reserve summary (total paid, total ultimate, total IBNR, and PMPM when membership is present).

compareAverageMethodsCompare average methods

Compare the total IBNR that each available average method (development factor selection) would produce for a single triangle.

explainCompletionFactorsExplain completion factors

Return the development factors, age-to-ultimate factors, completion factors, and the currently selected average method for a single triangle, so you can explain how the reserve is built up.

getQuickStartStatusGet quick start status

Report the reserving progress of each triangle: whether outliers/adjustments are applied, the selected average method, and whether margin, ad hoc, projection, and seasonality are enabled.

getMembershipGroupsGet membership groups

List the folder's membership groups and ungrouped triangles.

getSourceClaimsGet source claims

Inspect the raw source claim rows that feed a triangle (the drill-down behind a triangle cell).

Visualize

1 tool

Render an interactive chart or table inline in the chat instead of a wall of text.

showExhibitShow exhibit

Render an exhibit (chart or table) inline in the chat.

Available exhibits (15):

ibnrByTriangleadjustmentsComparisonaverageMethodComparisontotalTrianglelagTrianglereservesByPeriodreservesTablepmpmComparisoncompletionFactorswaterfallscenarioAnalysisrecentMonthsComparisonpropertiesComparisonsourceClaimsquickStartProgress

Export

1 tool

Render a live download card so you can save your analysis as files.

showExportShow export

Render a file-export card inline in the chat so the user can download files.

Available exports (1):

excelSpreadsheets

Take action (requires your approval)

13 tools

Propose a change to your reserving assumptions or data. Nothing is written until you review and click Approve.

setAverageMethodSet average method

Select the average (development-factor) method for one or more triangles.

optimizeReserveOptimize reserve

Select, per triangle, the average (development-factor) method that produces the HIGHEST (direction: maximize) or LOWEST (direction: minimize) total IBNR reserve.

addAverageMethodAdd average method

Add a custom average (development-factor) method to one or more triangles, like the "Add a method" dialog on the average-methods page.

setMarginSet margin

Set the IBNR margin percentage for one or more triangles and enable it.

toggleAssumptionToggle assumption

Enable or disable a reserving assumption for one or more triangles.

Assumptions it can toggle:

marginadHocprojectionseasonality

addAdHocAdjustmentAdd ad hoc adjustment

Add an ad hoc reserve adjustment (a manual dollar add/subtract) to one or more triangles for a specific incurred period, and enable ad hoc adjustments.

removeOutliersRemove outliers

Detect and remove statistical outliers in one or more triangles by z-score along development-lag diagonals, replacing each outlier cell with the diagonal mean (or zero).

adjustRecentMonthsAdjust recent months

Stabilize a triangle's most recent (immature) incurred months for one or more triangles, mirroring the "Adjust recent months" Quick Start step.

bulkRemoveSourceRowsBulk remove source rows

Remove every source claim row whose value in a given column is one of `values`, for one or more triangles (the natural-language version of the source-data bulk filter).

removeSourceRowRemove source row

Remove a single source claim row from a triangle by its rowIndex (get it from getSourceClaims).

adjustSourceRowAdjust source row

Correct the paid amount of a single source claim row in a triangle (e.g.

restoreSourceRowsRestore source rows

Restore previously removed source claim rows in a triangle (undo removeSourceRow / bulkRemoveSourceRows).

manageMembershipGroupsManage membership groups

Create and edit the folder's membership groups (the registry that tags triangles sharing ONE population so member months are counted once when aggregating).

This list is generated from the app's live tool definitions, so it reflects the current build.

Actuarial judgment is still required#

The AI agent is an assistant, not a replacement for the actuary. It is designed to keep a human in the loop at every consequential step:

You approve every change. No action tool writes to your data until you review the specific proposal and click Approve. The agent proposes; you decide.
The agent computes, you interpret. It grounds answers in your real numbers and shows its work through exhibits, but selecting a method, judging whether a reserve is reasonable, and standing behind the estimate remain professional judgments that only you can make.
Context the model cannot see still matters. Data quality issues, regulatory requirements, business changes, and the reasonableness of the underlying assumptions are your responsibility to assess.

Any reserve estimate produced with help from the agent is still your work product and remains subject to applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice, including those on estimating incurred health and disability claims, data quality, and actuarial communications. Use the agent to move faster and see more, not to skip the review.

To finalize reserves through a guided, step-by-step flow instead, see the Quick Start wizard, or start from the top with the Getting Started guide.